Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jase05]

When will the impact of restrictions kick in? Surely soon, please?

Sutton still said yesterday that there is a chance we may not have reached peak just yet but was hopeful that in the coming days we should see a downward trend

 

[SydneySwan]

What is the coming days? 5 days? 10 days?

I am losing confidence in Victoria's ability to stem this virus.

 

[jase05]

What is the coming days? 5 days? 10 days?

I am losing confidence in Victoria's ability to stem this virus.

Restrictions have been in for a week and Professor Kelly yesterday said it would take 2 weeks to start seeing the effects of the restrictions so by this time next week you would hope to see things trending the other way

 

[Pushka]

What is the coming days? 5 days? 10 days?

I am losing confidence in Victoria's ability to stem this virus.

All things considered, that seems spot on. I cannot imagine the fury of the Feds. Of course this virus is extremely clever but it was given a running start in Victoria from the very source through poor management of the overseas quarantine situation

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

All things considered, that seems spot on. I cannot imagine the fury of the Feds. Of course this virus is extremely clever but it was given a running start in Victoria from the very source through poor management of the overseas quarantine situation

I think the Fed CMO only came out today and said it, but they would have already known the figures since last night (just not the breakdown).

The Vic CHO earlier in the week hoped about now or the weekend (he said 3-5 days a few days ago, maybe on Monday or Tuesday).

This is not looking good - the lag is much longer than expected I say.

 

[Flying mermaid]

All things considered, that seems spot on. I cannot imagine the fury of the Feds. Of course this virus is extremely clever but it was given a running start in Victoria from the very source through poor management of the overseas quarantine situation

And apparently poor contact tracing. ABC had an article on it a few days ago and Morrison said it yesterday......

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Paul Kelly said there is about a 2 week lag, so hopefully next week. It’s pretty awful

Yes given the incubation period.

Restriction started for hotspot suburbs on 1 July. GMMA 8th July. But as was at 11.59PM is really 2nd and 9th.

So from hopefully after a day or so longer it will start to slow down and moreso from about the 23rd.

Against that:

• the recently infected will often be living with others, including but not limited to relatives, and so others in that household will continue to become infected and especially as it is more prevalent in areas at present with larger households. So all of these cases are yet to all ripple through each household even without entirely new branches of infections outside of all already infected households
• you still have mixing in many workplaces
• is that I think many probably did not really amend behaviours immediately that lockdowns came into force. It may have taken till say the 10th after repeated high numbers to really have more to jump on board.
• despite the community spread and surge in cases that on the last day before lockdown restaurants and pubs booked out as many decided to have their last dose of freedom with the risk of a sideorder of Covid 19 thrown in

So all in all, a sudden reduction while most desirable seems unlikely.

People to wear masks has been encouraged, but with the degree of community spread it probably should be emphasised further.

The stricter we all are, the more we have it turn around. A minority doing the wrong thing can keep fuelling it though.

 

[Pushka]

The stricter we all are, the more we have it turn around. A minority doing the wrong thing can keep fuelling it though.

Accepting this was always going to be more difficult to manage in Victoria, the restrictions were harsh in Victoria at the beginning anyway but not stage 4. Much much harsher than what we had in SA. I’m surprised NSW achieved such an excellent result in containing the overseas travellers except of course, Ruby fiasco. And right now even though in lockdown the figures will rise for a couple of days yet but am thinking that the people must be at their wits end doing all the right things only to have their Govt fail at the quarantine and management side and still see those figures keep climbing.

Is it too late?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW 2- 4 chains already.....from Crossroads Hotel ....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Accepting this was always going to be more difficult to manage in Victoria, the restrictions were harsh in Victoria at the beginning anyway but not stage 4. Much much harsher than what we had in SA. I’m surprised NSW achieved such an excellent result in containing the overseas travellers except of course, Ruby fiasco. And right now even though in lockdown the figures will rise for a couple of days yet but am thinking that the people must be at their wits end doing all the right things only to have their Govt fail at the quarantine and management side and still see those figures keep climbing.

Is it too late?

I don't think it is too late. I do think that this second wave has a lot of momentum though.

Measures squashed the first wave in Vic. Cases from it are now rare, or may even be zero. Success in halting the first wave probably caused mot to relax as they thought it all over.

The security guard fiasco has created a new and larger wave, a more serious second wave and a wave that grew more quickly as it arose in segments of the community that had a much higher potential Ro. Appropriate measures can squash it too, but it is a bigger and more energetic wave now as measures were brought in way too slowly.

The virus is not clever, but people can be stupid. The virus is highly transmissible and some choose to not recognise this or appreciate it, or just to not care. And yes many get infected due the poor actions of others.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW: so a few zones

Crossroads Hotel
Merimbula
Albury
Ballina

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW: so a few zones

Crossroads Hotel
Merimbula
Albury
Ballina

Oh dear wait until it hits Byron....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

VIC 428 new cases. 1 international traveller. So in effect 427 cases.
13 previous reclassified

 

[dajop]

Yes given the incubation period.

Restriction started for hotspot suburbs on 1 July. GMMA 8th July. But as was at 11.59PM is really 2nd and 9th.

So from hopefully after a day or so longer it will start to slow down and moreso from about the 23rd.

In addition to the lag in people contracting there'd also be a lag in testing. So the results reported today are from tests conducted yesterday from samples collected when ??? Could be looking at Monday or Tuesday's samples, so only 5-6 days into the lockdown.

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW slowly introducing more limits but not for another week. Really don't want to do it do they...


NSW extends coronavirus restrictions to restaurants, cafes and clubs


NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced COVID-19 restrictions introduced to pubs will be extended to restaurants, bars, cafes and clubs.

The restrictions include limiting bookings to a maximum of 10 people.

Weddings and corporate events will also be limited to 150 people, subject to the four square metre rule.

Funerals and places of worship will be limited to 100 people.

The restrictions will be in place from July 24.

NSW extends coronavirus restrictions to restaurants, cafes, clubs

Bookings to be limited to 10 people in restaurants, bars, cafes and clubs, while numbers at weddings and funeral to be restricted as NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian tightens coronavirus restrictions.

www.abc.net.au

Tough new restrictions for NSW restaurants, bars and cafes as Crossroads Hotel cluster grows

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced a further tightening of restrictions on restaurants, cafes and bars, which from next Friday will be required to limit group bookings to 10 people.

www.smh.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Another 3 deaths.

VIC HOSPITALISED
Cases in Hospital

DATE	HOSP	ICU	VENT
Sat 11 Jul	49	15
Sun 12 Jul	57	16
Mon 13 Jul	72	17
Tue 14 Jul	85	26	21
Wed 15 Jul	105	27	21
Thu 16 Jul	109	29	22
Fri 17 Jul	122	31	22

 

[moa999]

Certainly in NSW most test results with 24hrs.

I'd think this will be close to the peak for Vic in infections (another lag for hospitalisations and deaths unf)

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The positivity rate is still going in the wrong direction. 1.7% today is quite alarming.


VIC POSITIVE TESTS
Daily Confirmed Cases / Daily Tests

DATE	CASES	TESTS	POS
Sat 11 Jul	181	27,169	0.67 %
Sun 12 Jul	239	30,195	0.79 %
Mon 13 Jul	168	22,943	0.73 %
Tue 14 Jul	257	21,995	1.17 %
Wed 15 Jul	224	27,040	0.83 %
Thu 16 Jul	302	28,607	1.06 %
Fri 17 Jul	415	24,409	1.70 %

 

[lovetravellingoz]

In addition to the lag in people contracting there'd also be a lag in testing. So the results reported today are from tests conducted yesterday from samples collected when ??? Could be looking at Monday or Tuesday's samples, so only 5-6 days into the lockdown.

I don't know the current lag. The greater the number of tests the more the lag.

However with the tests priority is given to processing samples from those whom are more likely be infected, or who are more known to be at risk, or where they are in essential positions or high risk environment (ie healthworkers).

I do not know the exact methodology, but it does mean that on average that there would be less lag in those that test positive. But yes some of those who test positive will be after some delay.

 

[jakeseven7]

I don't know the current lag. The greater the number of tests the more the lag.

It also depends on the pathology provider as it differs. Doctor referred are also coming back with higher positive rates (obviously) and those labs seem to be a little slower returning results.