Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[antycbr]

I think in principal that is a fair question.

VIC can’t be too far away now from coming back online to help as well. Thank goodness despite political party differences Dan and Gladys actually seem to have a practical and working relationship to sort these and other related things out.

Id be prepared to help VIC out but the rest can sort their own arrangements. Particularly QLD and WA that normally have adequate international services.

Unless the feds want to do their job and establish commonwealth quarantine stations at defence facilities.

 

[Pushka]

Id be prepared to help VIC out but the rest can sort their own arrangements. Particularly QLD and WA that normally have adequate international services.

Unless the feds want to do their job and establish commonwealth quarantine stations at defence facilities.

Only Qatar and SQ fly into Adelaide.

 

[antycbr]

Only Qatar and SQ fly into Adelaide.

Id call that adequate service for the purposes of quarantine certainly from origins in Asia, Middle East and Europe.

The main issue is the very small caps in other states combined with the closure of MEL.

 

[p--and--t]

Thank goodness despite political party differences Dan and Gladys actually seem to have a practical and working relationship

I have been rather amazed at the three of them actually (including the prime Minister). Aside from some lapses here and there, largely they have been focused on matters at hand.

Rather impressed at the continual brotherly love comments that come from Andrews about the PM, including in today's presser regardless of some of the unhelpful comments coming from some of the fed cabinet members with stupid statements about opening up two weeks ago when its pretty obvious to most that was the wrong move.

 

[dajop]

Looks like Gladys is getting annoyed about NSW taking more than their population percentages of international arrivals.

My recommendation to Gladys: only allow pax who have endpoint NSW or maybe ACT to enter into Sydney. All other states can sort their own arrangements out. I don’t see why the NSW Government should take on the risks and costs on behalf of states such as Queensland. They can sort out their own arrangements via their own premiers.

Let's just disbandon the Commonwealth and be done with it all.

 

[antycbr]

Let's just disbandon the Commonwealth and be done with it all.

That’s the way it’s going guys.

 

[p--and--t]

Looks like Gladys is getting annoyed about NSW taking more than their population percentages of international arrivals.

My recommendation to Gladys: only allow pax who have endpoint NSW or maybe ACT to enter into Sydney. All other states can sort their own arrangements out. I don’t see why the NSW Government should take on the risks and costs on behalf of states such as Queensland. They can sort out their own arrangements via their own premiers.

NSW is talking more than the rest of the country combined.

She better be careful of what she wishes for, although pretty safe until MEL reopens fully.

If airlines get p....d off, if they re-route to another state for the next 6 months, if they discover new passenger opportunities, work with more cooperative governments, then SYD might lose potential ongoing traffic for a long time.

A long bow to draw, but could shoot herself in the foot for long term tourism. In the meantime NSW will have more empty rooms, less people employed etc etc etc.

When things open up a bit more for example, through redirected advertising $$, o/s visitors could fly into BNE in lieu of SYD and package in a CNS trip or into DWN & Kakadu on the way to MEL.

 

[dajop]

If you look at NSW current cap (2450 per week) , per head of population SA is taking it's fair share also. Population based equivalents should be:
Queensland - 1550 (vs 500)
WA - 795 (vs 525)
SA - 530 (vs 500)

and if, when Vic opens up again they should be on the hook for 2000.

And where's the 160/week to Tas, 130 to ACT and 75 to NT?

 

[antycbr]

She better be careful of what she wishes for, although pretty safe until MEL reopens fully.

If airlines get p....d off, if they re-route to another state for the next 6 months, if they discover new passenger opportunities, work with more cooperative governments, then SYD might lose potential ongoing traffic for a long time.

A long bow to draw, but could shoot herself in the foot for long term tourism. In the meantime NSW will have more empty rooms, less people employed etc etc etc.

When things open up a bit more for example, through redirected advertising $$, o/s visitors could fly into BNE in lieu of SYD and package in a CNS trip or into DWN & Kakadu on the way to MEL.

Highly unlikely. Sydney is THE destination that everyone wants. Economic powerhouse, largest population. Home of the majority of the ASX companies who will be the main drivers of business travel.

In the new post Covid world of international service, you may see many carriers retreat to Sydney and rely on oncarriage on VA and QF. Why would you fly into BNE when it is lower yielding?

With Melbournes economy crippled for the foreseeable future this will just reinforce the importance of Sydney.

 

[p--and--t]

Highly unlikely. Sydney is THE destination that everyone wants. Economic powerhouse, largest population. Home of the majority of the ASX companies who will be the main drivers of business travel.

In the new post Covid world of international service, you may see many carriers retreat to Sydney and rely on oncarriage on VA and QF. Why would you fly into BNE when it is lower yielding?

With Melbournes economy crippled for the foreseeable future this will just reinforce the importance of Sydney.

I wasn't even contemplating Business travel.

 

[dajop]

With Melbournes economy crippled for the foreseeable future this will just reinforce the importance of Sydney.

By the time the international borders re-open up in 2024 ( ) , I think Melbourne's economy will be more on track with the rest of Australia.

 

[antycbr]

By the time the international borders re-open up in 2024 ( ) , I think Melbourne's economy will be more on track with the rest of Australia.

There won’t be any Australian airlines left if it’s 2024... so we will take the scraps of whatever QR and EK offer us!

 

[antycbr]

Pointing out that international airlines know how to make money from Sydney. Sydney also has the benefit of domestic connections to all capitals and a stack of regional ports making it easier to carry pax onwards thru interline or codeshares.

 

[p--and--t]

Pointing out that international airlines know how to make money from Sydney. Sydney also has the benefit of domestic connections to all capitals and a stack of regional ports making it easier to carry pax onwards thru interline or codeshares.

Yep totally understand. Just the post sounded like I was at a rally LOL

[BTW: Vic will be on the comeback trail soon, watch your back ]

 

[jakeseven7]

There will be no lasting international flight changes once there is an effective vaccine / treatment / decision just to get on with life / whatever return to normality.

Humans have very short memories. Everything will go back to normal patterns. Except @antycbr wont be holidaying in QLD for a while

 

[RAM]

Looks like Gladys is getting annoyed about NSW taking more than their population percentages of international arrivals.

My recommendation to Gladys: only allow pax who have endpoint NSW or maybe ACT to enter into Sydney. All other states can sort their own arrangements out. I don’t see why the NSW Government should take on the risks and costs on behalf of states such as Queensland. They can sort out their own arrangements via their own premiers.

NSW is talking more than the rest of the country combined.

Prior to the June outbreak in Melb - Gladys/NSW were taking LESS than their pre-CV share of international arrivals. Sydney typically handled around 46% of all international arrival pre-CV. Sydney Airport (& Macquarie Bank) was/is looking to expand that to low 50s%.

Up until June 2020 it was taking around 1/3rd with Melbourne close to 1/3rd and the other airports being 1/3rd in total.

Gladys' rounding error coincidentally was on the 'exageration' side of the scale. Given that Sydney has around 28,000 hotel rooms with approx 3,600 or around 13% used for the quarantine program (now with 100% of room cost & food due to be paid by arrivals) the cost to the NSW Govt has plummeted.

It would not 'strain' resources to add an extra 700 to 1,000 arrivals a week to the cap - if it was phased up gradually over 3 or 4 weeks.

Or is there another real reason that Gladys does not want the numbers back to what they were before the cut in late July? Previously Sydney was at 450 per day - which itself was a cut introduced on the Sydney daily capacity from July 4th.

 

[p--and--t]

Prior to the June outbreak in Melb - Gladys/NSW were taking LESS than their pre-CV share of international arrivals. Sydney typically handled around 46% of all international arrival pre-CV. Sydney Airport (& Macquarie Bank) was/is looking to expand that to low 50s%.

Up until June 2020 it was taking around 1/3rd with Melbourne close to 1/3rd and the other airports being 1/3rd in total.

Gladys' rounding error coincidentally was on the 'exageration' side of the scale. Given that Sydney has around 28,000 hotel rooms with approx 3,600 or around 13% used for the quarantine program (now with 100% of room cost & food due to be paid by arrivals) the cost to the NSW Govt has plummeted.

It would not 'strain' resources to add an extra 700 to 1,000 arrivals a week to the cap - if it was phased up gradually over 3 or 4 weeks.

Or is there another real reason that Gladys does not want the numbers back to what they were before the cut in late July? Previously Sydney was at 450 per day - which itself was a cut introduced on the Sydney daily capacity from July 4th.

From the presser today by Albo, he claims the states want to take more (since user pays came in) but the Federal Government who are responsible for ramping up quarantine support and approvals (a clear fed responsibility) are the roadblock.

Whether the road block is there or not, I guess we might find out in coming days.

 

[antycbr]

Prior to the June outbreak in Melb - Gladys/NSW were taking LESS than their pre-CV share of international arrivals. Sydney typically handled around 46% of all international arrival pre-CV. Sydney Airport (& Macquarie Bank) was/is looking to expand that to low 50s%.

Up until June 2020 it was taking around 1/3rd with Melbourne close to 1/3rd and the other airports being 1/3rd in total.

Gladys' rounding error coincidentally was on the 'exageration' side of the scale. Given that Sydney has around 28,000 hotel rooms with approx 3,600 or around 13% used for the quarantine program (now with 100% of room cost & food due to be paid by arrivals) the cost to the NSW Govt has plummeted.

It would not 'strain' resources to add an extra 700 to 1,000 arrivals a week to the cap - if it was phased up gradually over 3 or 4 weeks.

Or is there another real reason that Gladys does not want the numbers back to what they were before the cut in late July? Previously Sydney was at 450 per day - which itself was a cut introduced on the Sydney daily capacity from July 4th.

All that’s nice - but state of residence must play a factor moving forward.

 

[drron]

From the presser today by Albo, he claims the states want to take more (since user pays came in) but Scomo/Dutton et al who are responsible for ramping up quarantine support and approvals (a clear fed responsibility) are the roadblock.

Whether the road block is there or not, I guess we might find out in coming days.

Surely any of the State Governments could increase their cap at very little expense seeing the quarantine is self funded?
Although over in WA they want the Commonwealth to reopen the detention centres.

 

[Pushka]

All that’s nice - but state of residence must play a factor moving forward.

Likely not as then SA wont be required to take many at all.