Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[somebol]

I wonder what case numbers NSW will have 2 weeks after Freedom Day. Place your bets now

between 600 - 800 for the first couple of weeks after freedom day.

After that Gladys will stop announcing case numbers, just hospitalisations.

 

[Pushka]

Talking to UK based son last night who has been vaxxed etc. With a 12 year old attending school he uses the PCR FREE test kit once every couple of weeks. This is a habit we must encourage here in Aus. His SIL picked up her infection this way and immediately isolated at home and her partner never acquired it.

 

[moa999]

Back up to 900s for NSW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1443380554439663617

 

[Quickstatus]

Victorians not testing to same levels as NSW

1.4% of the NSW population testing (121000/8.2M x100)
0.9% of the VIC population testing (65497/6.7M x100)

To be on par with NSW, VIC testing should be around 90-100K/day.

 

[jb747]

I'm sure it will go to multiple thousands, but as the testing places won't have the ability to test everyone unless they're prepared to wait all day, the numbers will top out.

My take is the Dan has totally lost control of some areas now, as this whole thing has gone of for far too long. The non compliant areas will simply spread. I see non compliance all around me now, and amongst all levels of society.

 

[jakeseven7]

Back up to 900s for NSW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1443380554439663617

Oh dear up again. I wonder if it will go down tomorrow. Keeping Vic company

 

[kyle]

I'm sure it will go to multiple thousands, but as the testing places won't have the ability to test everyone unless they're prepared to wait all day, the numbers will top out.

My take is the Dan has totally lost control of some areas now, as this whole thing has gone of for far too long. The non compliant areas will simply spread. I see non compliance all around me now, and amongst all levels of society.

I really don't know how Dan or his CHO can honestly believe that we are going to be so compliant given we've been in lockdown for so long.

 

[Quickstatus]

they're prepared to wait all day

Many in Jindabyne waited more than 6 hours to get their swabs yesterday after a positive case there.

On the other hand my local swabbing place was glad they at last found a customer when I drove up for my weekly nose clean

 

[mviy]

I'm sure it will go to multiple thousands, but as the testing places won't have the ability to test everyone unless they're prepared to wait all day, the numbers will top out.

My take is the Dan has totally lost control of some areas now, as this whole thing has gone of for far too long. The non compliant areas will simply spread. I see non compliance all around me now, and amongst all levels of society.

As has been reported in the vaccine thread first doses are improving in the LGAs of concern (see the top of this list: First and Second Doses Administered by LGA in Victoria - COVID Live). You can see the daily change in cases per LGA here: Cases by LGA in Victoria - COVID Live

On Monday (LGA vaccination numbers are released weekly each Monday) or the Monday after most of them should be up around 80% first dose. However it'll obviously be some weeks after that before they reach those levels for second dose and then a few weeks after the second dose before optimal protection kicks in.

Hopefully once we see over 50% fully vaccinated in the LGAs of concern the case numbers will begin to drop in those areas. Even if not, if most are fully vaccinated the risk of an overwhelming surge of people ending up in ICU will be much lower than it is with current vaccination levels.

 

[Quickstatus]

I wonder if it will go down tomorrow

3 possibilities: Up, down, same
So odds in favour of "down" would be 1:2

 

[jrfsp]

"More than 500 cases linked to grand final weekend gatherings, COVID commander says"

No surprises there really

 

[moa999]

Dan and Jerome clearly blaming home gatherings, particularly for AFL over the weekend...

Far more infections today in young men, and also lots of new households infected, which probably means lots of secondary infections over coming days.

 

[mviy]

"More than 500 cases linked to grand final weekend gatherings, COVID commander says"

No surprises there really

Many, many people in VIC are over it. Many of us don't want to go to protests, but some would certainly like to bend other rules. The lockdown rules are out of proportion to what has been faced here. There's no way VIC should have the record for the longest time in lockdown due to COVID-19. We haven't had the record case and death numbers to justify that that have been seen elsewhere in the world.

As more and more become fully vaccinated I think more and more will choose to ignore restrictions that they don't agree with. For mental health many are deciding to learn to live with the virus ahead of the state rules.

I would happily occasionally dine inside at a cafe or restaurant right now in VIC if the rules allowed it. I've had both vaccine doses, so if I catch the virus I should be O.K.

 

[Quickstatus]

PCR FREE test kit

You mean PCR free (as in not a PCR test), or a free at home PCR test kit?

The correct name is a lateral flow Covid test kit - if this is what you are referringt to...
Lateral flow just means the sample flows along a absorbent pad and the results comes up in a second window.
Other examples of lateral flow tests are urine pregnancy tests.
Not a PCR test (the current one) but rather the test lights up with detection of an antibody = so called rapid antibody test.

Surprisingly the NHS (UK) says it has a "99.9% accuracy". Not sure what that exactly means either.

Is it 99.9% sensitive to Covid antibody? which means it will be positive in the presence of antibody 99.9% of the time (false negative avoided)
Or 99.9% specific to Covid antibody? which means it will not be positive to anything other than covid antibody 99.9% of the time (false positive avoided)

 

[jakeseven7]

3 possibilities: Up, down, same
So odds in favour of "down" would be 1:2

Are you allowed to bet on the numbers anywhere I wonder

 

[Quickstatus]

Are you allowed to bet on the numbers anywhere I wonder

I have not seen it, but I am not a gambler other than Lotto.
Maybe the internet black sites?
Though 1:2 odds are not very attractive.
The odds are more like even odds (1:1) because for a number to be the same the next day would seem to be very unlikely compared to an increase or decrease if you look at the previous few months.

 

[serfty]

Are you allowed to bet on the numbers anywhere I wonder

I doubt in any commercial sense.

And it would be in pretty bad taste to do so in any sense, commercial or otherwise.

 

[justinbrett]

Pretty poor taste to be making jokes about case numbers here too.

 

[Pushka]

You mean PCR free (as in not a PCR test), or a free at home PCR test kit?

The correct name is a lateral flow Covid test kit - if this is what you are referringt to...
Lateral flow just means the sample flows along a absorbent pad and the results comes up in a second window.
Other examples of lateral flow tests are urine pregnancy tests.
Not a PCR test (the current one) but rather the test lights up with detection of an antibody = so called rapid antibody test.

Surprisingly the NHS (UK) says it has a "99.9% accuracy". Not sure what that exactly means either.

Is it 99.9% sensitive to Covid antibody? which means it will be positive in the presence of antibody 99.9% of the time (false negative avoided)
Or 99.9% specific to Covid antibody? which means it will not be positive to anything other than covid antibody 99.9% of the time (false positive avoided)

I dunno. Whatever test UK is giving out free and done at home and results in 20 minutes. He isn't into details. Son didn't even know which Vax he'd had and had to ask his wife.

 

[oz_mark]

You mean PCR free (as in not a PCR test), or a free at home PCR test kit?

From what I have seen, they are free lateral flow tests. Pick a kit up from pharmacies.