Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[Pushka]

No.B would not be infective at 2 days when he met C or likely at 4 days when the Health dept tracked down A's contacts and quarantined B.
Sure we do not know exactly when B would become a transmission risk to others but with other viral illnesses usually late in the incubation phase.

So it is possible then, if B met C at 12 days post meeting A, who became symptomatic the day after meeting B. As far as tracing contacts, that totally depends on how cooperative A is then, or memory, illness etc.

 

[I love to travel]

No.B would not be infective at 2 days when he met C or likely at 4 days when the Health dept tracked down A's contacts and quarantined B.
Sure we do not know exactly when B would become a transmission risk to others but with other viral illnesses usually late in the incubation phase.

Thanks that is really useful to understand.
As a medical professional, what are your views on how serious this is?

 

[AisleSeat]

British airways has suspendedd all flights in and out of China.

British Airways has suspended all flights to and from mainland China

More than 130 people are dead in China as the coronavirus spreads across the globe. Follow here for the latest updates.

edition.cnn.com

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So on the news tonight a Melbourne man in his 60s was diagnosed with the virus following tests at his local GP on 23 January. He was referred to Monash Medical centre and is now recovering at home . Hard to know how 'serious' this is.

 

[drron]

As far as contacts go it depends on the virus being confirmed.If A doesn't go to the doctor then obviously not a confirmed case so no contact tracing.However not every contact will get the virus.We really don't know what pwercentage but it certainly does depend on the nature of the contact.If A coughs or sneezes over you a higher chance.Probably also if A kisses B.If just passed in the street in Australia a low chance.
How serious is this?Obviously in China it is quite serious.As far as the rest of the world-who knows.

However previous CoV outbreaks have been in the end not a major problem.SARs estimated deaths ~ 770.MERs ~ 600.Incidentially MERs was first known as
2012-nCoV.

Most probably the next serious pandemic will be due to another mutation of an influenza virus.Swine flu was one and estimated to have caused up to 650000 deaths world wide.
The flu virus continuously mutates hence the need for a new flu vaccine every year.

 

[RooFlyer]

Just went into Bunnings (thanks @Quickstatus ) and got my stock of 3M P2, N95 masks for my o/s trip starting in a few weeks ... You never know! ... what a circumstance might be. If not needed, then OK in handyman work But I suspect that they might get exercised in Japan and Taiwan, if I make it that far.

 

[Quickstatus]

I find them a bit stifling to breathe through if correctly fitted..
But it may be of use in high pollution areas.
I don't know how many hours they last for.

The virologists at the Australian lab that grew the virus in the lab have opined that they think 2019 n-COV is more infectious but less pathogenic (causing morbidity or mortality) than SARS
I would actually be worried about the next influenza pandemic.

.....
The first medical paper published by Lancet about this disease

 

[Pushka]

I’m thinking unless this resolves by end of March that we will be banned from contact with our grandchild once we return from Indonesia....

 

[Quickstatus]

I’m thinking unless this resolves by end of March that we will be banned from contact with our grandchild once we return from Indonesia....

SARS outbreak was contained within 6 months.
It is interesting to remember that SARS only affected approx 8000 people but had a mortality of 10%. 1 superspreader patient infected 60% of all Hong Kong SARS.

This one looks more infectious but not as problematic
China saying 4500 confirmed cases with 106 deaths - about 2% mortality rate. The opinion is that most will just get a fever and some flu like illness except for the vulnerable like elderly, immunecompromised and very young. The ones who get hospitalised usually have pneumonia and associated problems.

 

[teammongo]

6th Case in Oz.

In isolation at Gold Coast University Hospital
Gold Coast Patient


The problem is that unlike the season flu - which has a mortality of 0.1% this has a mortality of about 2%, that is 20x the amount of people will die. Young, Old Fit and Frail.. Multiple that by 10's of thousands of people. Thats a lot of dead people.

An article outlining the first 41 cases, highlighted the more than half did NOT have comorbidities. That is very worrying..

The projections I have been watching for the last couple of days have been pretty accurate. Based on an R0 (infectivity) of approx 2.5 (ie for each person diagnosed they have infected on average 2.5 people), it is pretty ominous.



I think this might morph into something very serious. Hopefully with isolation and identiify those a risk very early, we can keep R0<1, and it will peter out.

TM

 

[Pushka]

T

SARS outbreak was contained within 6 months.
It is interesting to remember that SARS only affected approx 8000 people but had a mortality of 10%. 1 superspreader patient infected 60% of all Hong Kong SARS.

This one looks more infectious but not as problematic
China saying 4500 confirmed cases with 106 deaths - about 2% mortality rate. The opinion is that most will just get a fever and some flu like illness except for the vulnerable like elderly, immunecompromised and very young. The ones who get hospitalised usually have pneumonia and associated problems.

Thats reassuring to know. Thanks. Now just 2 months away. Might have to just deal with it - it’s not as though we see him all the time anyway - usually a couple of weeks plus between visits and we don’t babysit all that much at all.

 

[tgh]

Hi teammongo , welcome and thanks for your input.
Where can we find your (chilling) projections on line ?

 

[Isochronous]

Perspective is rare as is the sense of proportion, history and time. They can’t even remember the mortality from last year’s influenza

People always want to believe that their own experience is the biggest/best/unprecedented etc without any sense of history or context, which is why people are so susceptible to hysterical headlines about the weather being the hottest/coldest/worst ever.

 

[pauly7]

Hi teammongo , welcome and thanks for your input.
Where can we find your (chilling) projections on line ?

Streaming on Netflix in the D grade bucket somewhere

 

[drron]

The RO of SARs was similiar but not even as many deaths as the average influenza deaths in Australia alone.

Also evidence that this virus only survives outside the body for ~ 2 hours but influenza can last 24-48 hours and still be infective.So the RO of flu may be underestimated.

 

[teammongo]

I dont get my pandemic info from netflix as some would suggest.

Jon Read - Lancaster Univesity Medical School. An epidemiologist focusing animal/human transmission

Lancaster Medical School - CHICAS - Jonathan Read

Jonathan M Read

chicas.lancaster-university.uk

Derek A.T. coughmings - Prof of department of biology and the Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida.

http://www.epi.ufl.edu/people/faculty-profiles/derek-coughmings/

Antonia Ho - ID specialist - fields include clinical epidemiology of influenza and other respiratory viral infections
University of Glasgow - Research Institutes - Institute of Infection, Immunity & Inflammation - Staff A-Z - Dr Antonia Ho

Published on open access

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

First Iteration were R of 3.11, but has since been revised down to 2.5 (i think). This is moving very quickly, so it hard to keep a breast of current info.

TM

 

[Melburnian1]

I dont get my pandemic info from netflix as some would suggest.

Jon Read - Lancaster Univesity Medical School. An epidemiologist focusing animal/human transmission

Lancaster Medical School - CHICAS - Jonathan Read

Jonathan M Read

chicas.lancaster-university.uk

Derek A.T. coughmings - Prof of department of biology and the Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida.

http://www.epi.ufl.edu/people/faculty-profiles/derek-coughmings/

Published on open access

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

First Iteration were R of 3.11, but has since been revised down to 2.5 (i think). This is moving very quickly, so it hard to keep a breast of current info.

TM

teammongo, great contribution because for the vast majority of us who are not medically trained, it appears at times there are conflicting views about this 'strain' if I can (incorrectly?) use that word.

 

[teammongo]

I am not sure I understand what you mean.

Currently there are 33 unique sequenced specimens.

"All samples are highly related with at most five mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a shared common ancestor sometime in Nov 2019. This indicates an initial human infection in Nov 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections."

See NextStrain

TM

 

[pauly7]

Will the planned Qantas relief flight from Wuhan -> Christmas Island earn SC and FF points do we think?

And what protocol will they follow to de-con the plane afterwards?

 

[Happy Trails]

And what protocol will they follow to de-con the plane afterwards?

This was TG's response, though the cynic in me suggests it was more of a PR exercise.

Submarine Crew Flown Back From Wuhan – But No Evac for Civilians

BANGKOK — Foreign affairs minister Don Pramudwinai said there is no immediate plan to evacuate Thai nationals stranded in Wuhan, which has been placed under lockdown by the Chinese government in a bid to contain the new coronavirus contagion.

www.khaosodenglish.com