Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[moa999]

Friend just returned to HK with family after an extended stay in Aus since January.

Mandatory 14-day home detention.
Entire family (including the two five year old kids) also required to wear some fairly chunky GPS wristbands for the duration.

 

[JackMiles]

Lots of people citing Taiwan, South Korea, HK as world's best responses, whathaveyou. No-one (that I recall, without reviewing all 16 pages of comments) has mentioned Vietnam. Is that due to; not aware of, or don't believe their reported numbers? If the numbers are true, they've nailed this better than pretty much anyone.
So as to the believability, well, I haven't read anything saying the numbers can't be trusted, and the average Viet citizen has a high level of access to the internet (cf China), so you'd think counter-info would be out there if the situation were way different to what's officially reported.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Lots of people citing Taiwan, South Korea, HK as world's best responses, whathaveyou. No-one (that I recall, without reviewing all 16 pages of comments) has mentioned Vietnam. Is that due to; not aware of, or don't believe their reported numbers? If the numbers are true, they've nailed this better than pretty much anyone.
So as to the believability, well, I haven't read anything saying the numbers can't be trusted, and the average Viet citizen has a high level of access to the internet (cf China), so you'd think counter-info would be out there if the situation were way different to what's officially reported.

Yes I raised Vietnam some time back after noticing their impressive statistical record.

Another poster has however also indicated that he has contacts in Vietnam who tell him that the official figures are not a true reflection of what is actually occurring there. Though he did not indicate it was in anyway not good there.

 

[JackMiles]

Yes I raised Vietnam some time back after noticing their impressive statistical record.

Another poster has however also indicated that he has contacts in Vietnam who tell him that the official figures are not a true reflection of what is actually occurring there. Though he did not indicate it was in anyway not good there.

Oh, yes, I remember that exchange now - with numerous similar threads, hard to keep track of it all
Anyway, yeah, even if the real numbers are 10x reported, still v impressive for a country of 90+M pop with a land border with China.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Friend just returned to HK with family after an extended stay in Aus in January.

Mandatory 14-day home detention.
Entire family (including the two five year old kids) also required to wear some fairly chunky GPS wristbands for the duration.

Though that does not in itself prevent visitors from mixing with them. It just prevents them from going out.

• Lower cost than quarantine.
• Less risky than self-isolation without GPS monitoring
• More risky than quarantine as outsiders can still mix with them.

 

[moa999]

Though that does not in itself prevent visitors from mixing with them. It just prevents them from going out.

Agreed it's a cost-risk tradeoff. Think they are also expecting some home visits from the authorities over the 14 days.

In their case as non-HK citizens they obviously have more to lose than an HK citizen (immediate deportation)

 

[p--and--t]

Lots of people citing Taiwan, South Korea, HK as world's best responses, whathaveyou. No-one (that I recall, without reviewing all 16 pages of comments) has mentioned Vietnam. Is that due to; not aware of, or don't believe their reported numbers? If the numbers are true, they've nailed this better than pretty much anyone.
So as to the believability, well, I haven't read anything saying the numbers can't be trusted, and the average Viet citizen has a high level of access to the internet (cf China), so you'd think counter-info would be out there if the situation were way different to what's officially reported.

Have commented before regarding VN, the feedback from people on the ground inside the country is "don't believe any figures the government has published"

Post automatically merged: May 10, 2020

Though that does not in itself prevent visitors from mixing with them. It just prevents them from going out.

• Lower cost than quarantine.
• Less risky than self-isolation without GPS monitoring
• More risky than quarantine as outsiders can still mix with them.

Ambulance chaser brigade would be in the courts in a flash crying loss of rights blah blah blah. Don't think it will happen here.

 

[JackMiles]

Have commented before regarding VN, the feedback from people on the ground inside the country is "don't believe any figures the government has published"

Post automatically merged: May 10, 2020

Appreciate you reiterating and apologies - as I said above, with a reminder from lovetrav I did remember your earlier post. So did your contacts on the ground provide any more detail or, respectfully, any evidence for their contrary-to-govt assertion? Sincerely not picking a fight here, but am wishing to travel to VN kinda asap, so very curious what the reality is (and yeah, I realise travel there is a long ways off).

 

[dajop]

Ambulance chaser brigade would be in the courts in a flash crying loss of rights blah blah blah. Don't think it will happen here.

I fear you ar right re this comment, but common sense (which is often sadly absent) would dictate someone being confined to their own home (or hotel room of their own choice) through electronic tag loses less rights than someone confined to a guarded room.

 

[JackMiles]

I see I didn't do the quoting-reply thing right. Just in case, P&T, you missed my reply, here it is, hopefully in view this time:
Appreciate you reiterating and apologies - as I said above, with a reminder from lovetrav I did remember your earlier post. So did your contacts on the ground provide any more detail or, respectfully, any evidence for their contrary-to-govt assertion? Sincerely not picking a fight here, but am wishing to travel to VN kinda asap, so very curious what the reality is (and yeah, I realise travel there is a long ways off).

 

[p--and--t]

I see I didn't do the quoting-reply thing right. Just in case, P&T, you missed my reply, here it is, hopefully in view this time:
Appreciate you reiterating and apologies - as I said above, with a reminder from lovetrav I did remember your earlier post. So did your contacts on the ground provide any more detail or, respectfully, any evidence for their contrary-to-govt assertion? Sincerely not picking a fight here, but am wishing to travel to VN kinda asap, so very curious what the reality is (and yeah, I realise travel there is a long ways off).

I'll get in touch with them during the week and get some more detail if I can. The previous communication 2-3 weeks ago things were probably an order of magnitude worse than the gov published.

 

[p--and--t]

I fear you ar right re this comment, but common sense (which is often sadly absent) would dictate someone being confined to their own home (or hotel room of their own choice) through electronic tag loses less rights than someone confined to a guarded room.

Drifting off topic a bit but common sense doesn't always apply unfortunately.

We already had several arrests and an injured police officer carted off to hospital after a tin hat brigade crowd carried on like idiots outside parliament today demanding their freedom from tyranny.

 

[JackMiles]

I'll get in touch with them during the week and get some more detail if I can. The previous communication 2-3 weeks ago things were probably an order of magnitude worse than the gov published.

That would be great. Much appreciated.

 

[CityRail]

Dreaming of the ditch: trans-Tasman travel may be coming soon, bro

An expert panel has convened to nut out how we might resume travel between Australia and New Zealand. But exactly what will the trans-Tasman bubble look like?

www.smh.com.au

Some further progress re Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble:

This week the Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum (ANZLF) created an expert panel, the Trans-Tasman Safe Border Group, to answer the question. It will include repesentatives from Border Force, health authorities, quarantine authorities, airlines and airports.

The expert panel meets for the first time on Tuesday and will spend three to four weeks nutting out protocols to enable safe travel between the two countries, which it will pass on to both governments.

Also possibly for the first time in Australian media, we have some more ideas about travelling to Asian countries where the virus is under control:

Once things have opened across the Tasman, “we can start incrementally thinking about other places we can fly people in and out of”, says Sherry.

A safe travel zone could be expanded to include parts of Asia where the virus is under control, such as Singapore, and virus-free Pacific nations such as Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Samoa and Tonga.

I always wonder if the virus is under control in Singapore where they still have a handful of local cases outside of the workers dorm.

 

[ethernet]

Have commented before regarding VN, the feedback from people on the ground inside the country is "don't believe any figures the government has published"

Post automatically merged: May 10, 2020

Ambulance chaser brigade would be in the courts in a flash crying loss of rights blah blah blah. Don't think it will happen here.

People in Vietnam believe:
Their hot dry weather crippled the virus, mostly
Australia and Vn seem to have had the type A strain
They wear cloth pollution / soot masks mostly
They still reckon hospitals - stay away

My punt is international flights should start August. Because with 2 pax per flight like NZ, our airlines will die or shrivel / abandon regional flights. I think there will still be bans to type C countries like Singapore and Italy. The biggie is still Bali - that could go either way. That you must log where you went, and stay out of hot zones, and perhaps instant tests both ways. The interesting bit is travel insurance, and who pays for sick arrivals because if you 'charge' there is an incentive NOT to report sickness.

If the claims of 4Billion per week are true, operations research can determine the optimum number, because 'elimination' is a fairy tale. PAL and AirAsia are firing up, because the cost equations assume a lesser whole cost of life numbers. Superior outcomes would look at the itinerary, and discount 'staying with family' etc.

 

[JackMiles]

I'll get in touch with them during the week and get some more detail if I can. The previous communication 2-3 weeks ago things were probably an order of magnitude worse than the gov published.

Here's the first full article from a local/Western MSM outlet that I have seen on VN. Consensus seems to be that the numbers are trustworthy.

Experts say you can believe Vietnam when it says it has no COVID-19 deaths

While having a per capita income 22 times less than Australia's, Vietnam's low-budget approach to fighting COVID-19 has seen it successfully avoid catastrophe.

www.abc.net.au

 

[There'sOnlyOneJimmy]

Here's the first full article from a local/Western MSM outlet that I have seen on VN. Consensus seems to be that the numbers are trustworthy.

Experts say you can believe Vietnam when it says it has no COVID-19 deaths

While having a per capita income 22 times less than Australia's, Vietnam's low-budget approach to fighting COVID-19 has seen it successfully avoid catastrophe.

www.abc.net.au

I really hope that they are trustworthy - we want to go there as soon as it’s sensible (whatever that means...).
But... I’ve been watching their numbers on the Worldometers.info website and their total number of tests hasn’t changed for about 10 days. Every time I look it’s stuck on 261,004.
I don’t know what it means, but it just makes me wonder.

 

[Gremlin]

At the Senate Select Committee for Covid-19, Prof Murphy has just been asked about international travel and quarantine upon arrival. He said the following...

I cannot see border measures materially changing for some time and that presents a huge problem for the nation

and

"I cannot see border measures… they'll be one of the last things to go international border measures," he said.

Asked if he could see international borders reopening this year or next year, Dr Murphy admitted no one could be sure.

"There is no clear roadmap out of this, we have a strategy of maintaining strong suppression, potentially elimination in some parts of country while we relax restrictions," he said.

"But then we will have to reassess every few months to see what's happening with vaccines, treatments.

"I have no vision at the moment on the current international scene where strong border measures won't be necessary…the world situation will evolve over many months."

 

[kpc]

more about the post above: Coronavirus Australia live updates

Aussies hoping for an overseas holiday will be waiting for a very long time, according to chief medical officer Dr Brendan Murphy.

Speaking at today's COVID Committee, Dr Murphy said while local border measures were "less important" in stopping the spread of coronavirus currently, international border measures were integral.

"Two thirds of our cases have been overseas acquired and recent analysis in academic literature has shown that those countries that have done the best have introduced border measures," Dr Murphy said.

"I cannot see border measures materially changing for some time and that presents a huge problem for the nation."

 

[Hvr]

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

This site seems to update numbers fairly regularly.

Viet Nam was very serious about dealing with SARS and my late aunt, Prof Aileen Plant was asked by the WHO to go to either PRC or Viet Nam to assist with their fighting of the epidemic. She determined that Viet Nam was serious about their efforts and went there.

In 2003 the Vietnamese government awarded her the "People's Medal for Health" her work leading the World Health Organization's SARS team in Vietnam. Aileen Plant - Wikipedia

The Vietnamese government have obviously learnt the lessons about how to deal with these types of diseases and are successfully applying them during the COVID-19 pandemic.