Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jb747]

If that's what the government wants, Australia will never open up again.

That seems to be where we are headed. I wonder when the point will come that our airlines announce that they are giving up.

 

[hb13]

So the Pfizer vaccine has been approved in Australia and one of Scott Morrison's main points: Jab won't allow you to 'jump on a plane to Bali'. This is an absolute joke.

They keep talking about how we don't know if vaccines prevent transmission. Well, if we reach a point where every single person has had the opportunity to get a vaccine, at no cost (estimated to be October), what does it matter if there is vaccine spread???

Isn't the whole point of a vaccine to provide protection against getting said virus? If this is not going to open borders and return life to normal, what will? Does the government actually want to end international travel?

I'm not really into conspiracy theories, but can someone, anyone, tell me if that is the end goal - basically end international travel? Is there something bigger going on?

 

[hb13]

That seems to be where we are headed. I wonder when the point will come that our airlines announce that they are giving up.

On that point: Travel industry facing collapse amid COVID-19 crisis

But as I have said before, it seems like the government wants the end of travel anyway. This is just becoming ridiculous.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So the Pfizer vaccine has been approved in Australia and one of Scott Morrison's main points: Jab won't allow you to 'jump on a plane to Bali'. This is an absolute joke.

They keep talking about how we don't know if vaccines prevent transmission. Well, if we reach a point where every single person has had the opportunity to get a vaccine, at no cost (estimated to be October), what does it matter if there is vaccine spread???

Isn't the whole point of a vaccine to provide protection against getting said virus? If this is not going to open borders and return life to normal, what will? Does the government actually want to end international travel?

I'm not really into conspiracy theories, but can someone, anyone, tell me if that is the end goal - basically end international travel? Is there something bigger going on?

No one knows much about the first cycle of each of the vaccines.

What is the details of the protection? Eg less severe symptoms, antibodies (if, when, %, length), effect on spread/transmission, who die from vaccine, how long does vaccine effects last, which worse variants does it not have an effect on.

Take a deep breath.

My guess is the vaccines won’t have much of effect on spread and then we will see numbers jump, but if hospitalization and deaths don’t have that same jump (or delayed jump) - due in part to no death from taking vaccine (eg why were Norway deaths happening but not elsewhere) and effects of vaccine, rather than for example shielding/isolating vulnerable - then the world collectively might be able to have some confidence.

Part of the issue is some think from a personal / country point of view but there is some need to look at it globally.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I agree with you completely. Which is why this is beyond infuriating for myself and many others now. They will find some way, some how to keep the country closed. The scientists have already come out and started crowing about how the vaccine isn't the solution, and Australia will remain closed till God knows when.

Brendan Murphy has already come and said, before vaccinations have even started that we Australia will remain closed till at least 2022 because "We don't know whether that will prevent transmission of the virus". And he has also said the whole population will be vaccinated and then "we'll look at what happens": 'The answer is probably no': International travel likely off the cards for 2021

I genuinely don't think they want to open up the country till Covid is completely eradicated globally, ergo, never. It's been close to a year of lockout and things look more bleak than ever. And we can forget any travel corridors or bubbles this year too.

Brendan Murphy was fairly quickly rebutted by the PM, Deputy PM and CHO.

I think there are two parts to international travel, and it's worth looking at the relevant legislative (and therefore lawful) basis for those two parts. The government can't simply find 'some way' to extend the restrictions, they need to have valid grounds.

Arrival quarantine may be fairly easy to justify. Arrivals caps might depend on the choice between quarantine at home, or in a dedicated facility. The medical evidence will hopefully determine which one is chosen.

But the ban on departing may be more difficult to sustain unless it can be shown there is a medical or health benefit to those in Australia.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Brendan Murphy was fairly quickly rebutted by the PM, Deputy PM and CHO.

I think there are two parts to international travel, and it's worth looking at the relevant legislative (and therefore lawful) basis for those two parts. The government can't simply find 'some way' to extend the restrictions, they need to have valid grounds.

Arrival quarantine may be fairly easy to justify. Arrivals caps might depend on the choice between quarantine at home, or in a dedicated facility. The medical evidence will hopefully determine which one is chosen.

But the ban on departing may be more difficult to sustain unless it can be shown there is a medical or health benefit to those in Australia.

In case it was missed Pfizer has conditional approval in Australia.

Is the ban on leaving also related to numbers coming into Australia? Australia let you leave if for more than 3 month (or until too many use that loophole lol)

 

[Pushka]

So the Pfizer vaccine has been approved in Australia and one of Scott Morrison's main points: Jab won't allow you to 'jump on a plane to Bali'. This is an absolute joke.

They keep talking about how we don't know if vaccines prevent transmission. Well, if we reach a point where every single person has had the opportunity to get a vaccine, at no cost (estimated to be October), what does it matter if there is vaccine spread???

Isn't the whole point of a vaccine to provide protection against getting said virus? If this is not going to open borders and return life to normal, what will? Does the government actually want to end international travel?

I'm not really into conspiracy theories, but can someone, anyone, tell me if that is the end goal - basically end international travel? Is there something bigger going on?

I believe overseas travel will open up later this year after all people have been vaccinated. However that doesn’t mean I think that you can hop on a plane and fly off to Bali every few weeks. My thoughts are that people who are vaccinated will be allowed to travel but on return go into home quarantine for 14 days and be tested negative before you get on the return flight. You will need to pay a sum for police checking. And be tested again on arrival and two more days during the 14 days.

I don’t know what the call will be for people who aren’t vaccinated.

In case it was missed Pfizer has conditional approval in Australia.

Ive heard conflicting reports on that. Some have said conditional while others said full. I just can’t remember who said which.

 

[jase05]

Australia let you leave if for more than 3 month

They have really tightened up on that from what I’m led to believe. You need to have a pretty compelling case for it to be approved and have supporting documents

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

They have really tightened up on that from what I’m led to believe. You need to have a pretty compelling case for it to be approved and have supporting documents

Newish development, but not surprising. I did also originally say (or until too many use that loophole lol)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I believe overseas travel will open up later this year after all people have been vaccinated. However that doesn’t mean I think that you can hop on a plane and fly off to Bali every few weeks. My thoughts are that people who are vaccinated will be allowed to travel but on return go into home quarantine for 14 days and be tested negative before you get on the return flight. You will need to pay a sum for police checking. And be tested again on arrival and two more days during the 14 days.

I don’t know what the call will be for people who aren’t vaccinated.



Ive heard conflicting reports on that. Some have said conditional while others said full. I just can’t remember who said which.

It will be an interesting point as to whether it becomes complex such as:
1. positive, eg:
- pre-test - not allowed on flight
- after arrival - 14 day from positive test paid mandatory hotel quarantine
2. negative (day 1, day 12 and rapid day 14)
- Home quarantine for 14 days with mobile phone/GPS tracker and police check to ensure no visitors and travellers still at home

 

[Pushka]

It will be an interesting point as to whether it becomes complex such as:
1. positive, eg:
- pre-test - not allowed on flight
- after arrival - 14 day from positive test paid mandatory hotel quarantine
2. negative (day 1, day 12 and rapid day 14)
- Home quarantine for 14 days with mobile phone/GPS tracker and police check to ensure no visitors and travellers still at home

I’d think any positive goes straight to hotel quarantine at this stage. As soon as home quarantine is available then it will open up many for travel but also make others rethink if they really need to go OS.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I’d think any positive goes straight to hotel quarantine at this stage. As soon as home quarantine is available then it will open up many for travel but also make others rethink if they really need to go OS.

Make their own decisions like adults living in a free society?

It'll never catch on

 

[hb13]

I believe overseas travel will open up later this year after all people have been vaccinated. However that doesn’t mean I think that you can hop on a plane and fly off to Bali every few weeks. My thoughts are that people who are vaccinated will be allowed to travel but on return go into home quarantine for 14 days and be tested negative before you get on the return flight. You will need to pay a sum for police checking. And be tested again on arrival and two more days during the 14 days.

So how is this travel 'opening up'. If you still have to quarantine for 14 days after you've been vaccinated - how is that any different to now?

Post automatically merged: Jan 25, 2021

It will be an interesting point as to whether it becomes complex such as:
1. positive, eg:
- pre-test - not allowed on flight
- after arrival - 14 day from positive test paid mandatory hotel quarantine
2. negative (day 1, day 12 and rapid day 14)
- Home quarantine for 14 days with mobile phone/GPS tracker and police check to ensure no visitors and travellers still at home

So you are effectively still quarantined for 14 days? I'm a little confused?

Open travel means no quarantine. Or else how is that different to what it is now?

 

[dajop]

So how is this travel 'opening up'. If you still have to quarantine for 14 days after you've been vaccinated - how is that any different to now?

Post automatically merged: Jan 25, 2021

So you are effectively still quarantined for 14 days? I'm a little confused?

Open travel means no quarantine. Or else how is that different to what it is now?

Perhaps the wording is “more open” travel than “opening up”, but this might allow the government to allow people to leave without an exemption.

 

[Pushka]

So how is this travel 'opening up'. If you still have to quarantine for 14 days after you've been vaccinated - how is that any different to now?

Post automatically merged: Jan 25, 2021

So you are effectively still quarantined for 14 days? I'm a little confused?

Open travel means no quarantine. Or else how is that different to what it is now?

There is a world of difference between having to stay in a room and only have supplied food versus being at home and having fresh air. I'd do it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There is a world of difference between having to stay in a room and only have supplied food versus being at home and having fresh air. I'd do it.

Plus cost. Home quarantine will be trivial compared to having to pay for hotel quarantine.

Having said that I still think it will be more like 2022 before we see international leisure travel.

Later this year I would see more exemptions for reasons such as compassionate, relocation, work, business and the like.


There will also be a big difference if the vaccines limit transmission as well as protect health of each individual.

 

[hb13]

There is a world of difference between having to stay in a room and only have supplied food versus being at home and having fresh air. I'd do it.

That works for people who can work from home. For those that cannot work at home, an extra two weeks of leave is not possible.

Furthermore, home quarantine has been shown not to work. Particularly if you share the house with your wife/kids/friends/family. Do all of them also have to quarantine for 2 weeks? Because if they don't - there is no point.

I do live on my own currently and for me home quarantine may work - however, for the vast majority of people, the reality is it doesn't work. That's why the government is so insistent on hotel quarantine.

Home quarantine is not the solution. If you want to eradicate Covid-19, that is impossible, and the borders will never open up. That seems to be the only thing the government is willing to do. Make sure Covid-19 is eradicated completely, globally, or else borders stay shut. They clearly don't care about the travel industry or businesses and livelihoods in that industry. If they did, they would map out a plan out of this.

Right now, after a year of keeping the country in lockdown, they have decided that they will wait another year to get the whole population vaccinated and then try and see what happens from there or next steps.

 

[hb13]

Plus cost. Home quarantine will be trivial compared to having to pay for hotel quarantine.

Having said that I still think it will be more like 2022 before we see international leisure travel.

Later this year I would see more exemptions for reasons such as compassionate, relocation, work, business and the like.


There will also be a big difference if the vaccines limit transmission as well as protect health of each individual.

What about the cost for those people who can't afford to work from home? They need to take an extra two weeks annual leave.

Are the people who have white collar jobs and can afford to work from home the only ones who should be allowed to holiday and travel for leisure until Covid-19 has been eradicated forever - which may be never?

 

[Pushka]

That works for people who can work from home. For those that cannot work at home, an extra two weeks of leave is not possible.

Furthermore, home quarantine has been shown not to work. Particularly if you share the house with your wife/kids/friends/family. Do all of them also have to quarantine for 2 weeks? Because if they don't - there is no point.

I do live on my own currently and for me home quarantine may work - however, for the vast majority of people, the reality is it doesn't work. That's why the government is so insistent on hotel quarantine.

Home quarantine is not the solution. If you want to eradicate Covid-19, that is impossible, and the borders will never open up. That seems to be the only thing the government is willing to do. Make sure Covid-19 is eradicated completely, globally, or else borders stay shut. They clearly don't care about the travel industry or businesses and livelihoods in that industry. If they did, they would map out a plan out of this.

Right now, after a year of keeping the country in lockdown, they have decided that they will wait another year to get the whole population vaccinated and then try and see what happens from there or next steps.

Unless you have work or compelling family reasons in reality there is no reason in pandemic times to travel overseas. I have close family in the Uk and am prepared to quarantine at home if I am able to travel there at the end of the year.
What is reality this year may well not be reality next year.

 

[hb13]

Perhaps the wording is “more open” travel than “opening up”, but this might allow the government to allow people to leave without an exemption.

I would say the word is allowing people to leave the country more easily. Nothing more.